Im an engineer by education and although I spend the last years on the business side of startups I still struggle to trust any market estimates and more often than not just give up with the faint feeling it’s not possible to know anyhow. I think your article might have finally changed that by pointing out its more about the thinking process and if that could survive reality than getting the numbers right. Thanks for that ☺️
Founders waste weeks trying to calculate the perfect TAM down to the exact dollar, when investors really just want to know if you actually understand who pays you and how that expands over time.
Effective market sizing combines data analysis with a compelling narrative about your business opportunity. Focus on the specific target market and how your product meets their needs. Confidence in your market size estimation can significantly influence investor interest and engagement. What strategies do you find most effective for accurately sizing your market?
Thank you Melanie. Combining credible data with a clear expansion story is what makes market sizing compelling. I find bottom-up sizing paired with a realistic growth narrative to be the strongest approach
Nice article Petar. It is of no surprise why VC and strategy consulting firms still ask market sizing questions in their interview processes. Used to be my favorite part of the interviews!
Indeed! And once you understand the logic behind, virtually any question can be approached with that logical mindset. I wouldn’t be exaggerating if I say that in some cases, I´ve learned more from just preparing for that kind of interviews that from some real projects.
ya having raised before this is dead on, nobody is actually buying the number, theyre buying whether you can see the path from the little wedge to something big and most founders cant show that part
The point that stands out is that market sizing is not really about producing the biggest number. It is about proving the founder understands the market, the buyer, the wedge, and the expansion path.
I have seen founders lose credibility by forcing a massive TAM too early. Investors can smell inflation quickly.
My added thought: a strong market-size answer should create belief, not just display ambition. The best founders do not just say, “this is a big market.” They show how a small, painful, urgent wedge can compound into something much larger.
A number without a story never survives the second question.
The story behind the number is what gives it credibility and makes the market opportunity believable
Im an engineer by education and although I spend the last years on the business side of startups I still struggle to trust any market estimates and more often than not just give up with the faint feeling it’s not possible to know anyhow. I think your article might have finally changed that by pointing out its more about the thinking process and if that could survive reality than getting the numbers right. Thanks for that ☺️
Thank you Miria. I'm really glad the article resonated. Shifting the focus from perfect numbers to clear thinking makes the exercise much more useful
Founders waste weeks trying to calculate the perfect TAM down to the exact dollar, when investors really just want to know if you actually understand who pays you and how that expands over time.
Understanding the customer and the expansion path matters far more than chasing perfect precision
Effective market sizing combines data analysis with a compelling narrative about your business opportunity. Focus on the specific target market and how your product meets their needs. Confidence in your market size estimation can significantly influence investor interest and engagement. What strategies do you find most effective for accurately sizing your market?
Thank you Melanie. Combining credible data with a clear expansion story is what makes market sizing compelling. I find bottom-up sizing paired with a realistic growth narrative to be the strongest approach
Nice article Petar. It is of no surprise why VC and strategy consulting firms still ask market sizing questions in their interview processes. Used to be my favorite part of the interviews!
Thank you Daniel! Market sizing is a powerful way to understand how candidates structure their thinking, not just their math
Indeed! And once you understand the logic behind, virtually any question can be approached with that logical mindset. I wouldn’t be exaggerating if I say that in some cases, I´ve learned more from just preparing for that kind of interviews that from some real projects.
ya having raised before this is dead on, nobody is actually buying the number, theyre buying whether you can see the path from the little wedge to something big and most founders cant show that part
The expansion story is often what separates a credible pitch from an optimistic projection
Petar, this is a very practical and honest guide.
The point that stands out is that market sizing is not really about producing the biggest number. It is about proving the founder understands the market, the buyer, the wedge, and the expansion path.
I have seen founders lose credibility by forcing a massive TAM too early. Investors can smell inflation quickly.
My added thought: a strong market-size answer should create belief, not just display ambition. The best founders do not just say, “this is a big market.” They show how a small, painful, urgent wedge can compound into something much larger.
I really like your point that market sizing should create belief, not just ambition. That captures the essence of what investors are looking for
One of the best explanations I've seen. Investors rarely need perfect numbers, they need confidence that the market can grow with the business.
The small market problem is often less about size and more about being trapped.
A narrow wedge can be brilliant if it opens into something bigger.
The danger is when the first customer segment becomes the whole ceiling and everyone has to keep calling it a platform with a straight face.