Early stage investing isnāt about certainty, itās about risk clarity. The edge comes from knowing which risks you can survive and which ones will quietly kill the upside.
Fascinating! this is a new and clear view of Business and Investing. Startup founders could have magnificent knowledge on Investing and portfolio by referring this.
The way you talk about the problem you solve is huge in todayās world. The investors and customers alike need to see that you are changing the way something is done. They have to understand the value.
If youāre currently fundraising, this might be useful.
Weāve recently launched Frontier Deal Flow.
Itās a monthly curated database connecting high-quality companies with thousands of investors, including angels, VCs, family offices, and institutional funds.
The goal is simple: cut through the noise and get the right companies in front of the right investors.
Point 1 is the entire piece for me. 'Assume most ideas will not work' and 'identify the failure mode before you fall in love.' I spend all my time on the other side of this equation, studying the companies after the failure mode already played out. The patterns are remarkably consistent. The fatal risk almost never lives where the pitch deck says it does. The founder presents market risk. The actual kill is usually capital structure risk or channel economics risk. The product works. The customer exists. But the cost of reaching that customer through the distribution infrastructure available eats the margin before the model ever gets to prove itself. If I could hand every angel investor one diagnostic before they write a check, it would be this: don't ask whether the product is good. Ask whether the unit economics survive the actual cost of getting it to the customer through the channel they plan to use. That's where most of the companies I autopsy died and it's almost never in the pitch deck.
The hardest part is access to the best founders and getting into their cap tables IMHO. Doing they in enough volume
Access and consistent high-quality deal flow is where most of the game is. Totally agree
Angel investing is *a whole new world* (cue the Disney song)
That Iceberg vvisual is pretty useful.
Once you get into it, it really feels like a different world
Early stage investing isnāt about certainty, itās about risk clarity. The edge comes from knowing which risks you can survive and which ones will quietly kill the upside.
Knowing which risks matter is what really separates good decisions
Fascinating! this is a new and clear view of Business and Investing. Startup founders could have magnificent knowledge on Investing and portfolio by referring this.
Keeping it simple is what makes it actually usable
Love this Petar. Thanks for sharing.
I recently read the Exiting Market Trap Book (https://www.amazon.com/Existing-Market-Trap-Companies-Portfolios/dp/1956934758) which really changed How I looked at things for my business. I think whether you are building or looking to invest in those building this is a great read.
The way you talk about the problem you solve is huge in todayās world. The investors and customers alike need to see that you are changing the way something is done. They have to understand the value.
I will check the book. Thank you for sharing it with us!
I guess Iām on the other side of the fence! I would love to find an angel investor for The Improving Everything Community!
If youāre currently fundraising, this might be useful.
Weāve recently launched Frontier Deal Flow.
Itās a monthly curated database connecting high-quality companies with thousands of investors, including angels, VCs, family offices, and institutional funds.
The goal is simple: cut through the noise and get the right companies in front of the right investors.
You can check it out here: https://www.22ndcenturyfrontier.com/p/frontier-deal-flow
If youād like to be considered for the next issue, you can submit your company here (submissions are completely free): https://dimovzp.wixforms.com/f/7438271976927396931
Wishing you a successful rest of your week!
Point 1 is the entire piece for me. 'Assume most ideas will not work' and 'identify the failure mode before you fall in love.' I spend all my time on the other side of this equation, studying the companies after the failure mode already played out. The patterns are remarkably consistent. The fatal risk almost never lives where the pitch deck says it does. The founder presents market risk. The actual kill is usually capital structure risk or channel economics risk. The product works. The customer exists. But the cost of reaching that customer through the distribution infrastructure available eats the margin before the model ever gets to prove itself. If I could hand every angel investor one diagnostic before they write a check, it would be this: don't ask whether the product is good. Ask whether the unit economics survive the actual cost of getting it to the customer through the channel they plan to use. That's where most of the companies I autopsy died and it's almost never in the pitch deck.
Thank you for joining the conversation! Totally agree. Unit economics usually tell the real story, not the pitch deck
You can show people the shell, but investors want to get to the kernel.
Founders make that easier when they show that:
1. Know the customer properly
2. Understand the pain clearly
3. Can talk through the numbers behind the pitch
VC Chris Tottman used that analogy when I interviewed him on Millennial Masters.
A good story helps, but it still has to feel real.
š https://millennialmasters.net/p/how-to-convince-investors-2026
Getting to the core is what actually builds trust
Angel investing isnāt glamour, itās disciplined risk assessment: spot fatal risks, accept manageable ones, and bet where upside justifies uncertainty.
Itās all about being clear on risk, not chasing the hype
Starting with risk sounds right.Most people still underestimate how often the risk is timing, not the idea.